February 24, 2011

UNLEADED

Last night sucked. Kentucky lost at Arkansas, the same way they lost at Vanderbilt, which was the same way they lost at Florida, which was the same way they lost at Ole Miss, and Alabama, and maybe Georgia, although Georgia wasn't really a bad loss, and neither was Florida or Vandy. The thing that sucks about it is how they lost, and how repetitive it's all getting to be.

I'm talking of course about the fact that Kentucky comes out flat, gets down big, makes a second half run, takes a late lead, and loses at the very end. Seven times this has happened, and seven times it's been hard to watch. For some reason, none of the losses really bothered me until last night. I don't know if it's because they probably pissed away a chance at a 2 seed in the SEC, or because Terrence Jones shat the bed for most of the game, or what, but the Arkansas loss struck a nerve, not just with me, but with a large chunk of the fanbase.

The team's defenders will say this a young team, and the detractors will say Calipari can't coach. I say that is all bullshit. For starters, if Cal is a bad coach, he wouldn't have been going for win number 500 last night. And for those of you who think this is a young team, you are wrong, at least for this time of year. There are only 3 games left in the regular season; these freshmen are much closer to being sophomores than freshmen. They are not young anymore. Hell, for that matter they aren't inexperienced either. You don't play seven road games that closely and not get some experience from it. What they aren't is clutch, as someone noted on Twitter. And more than anything, what they aren't is a well-led team. When I say that, I don't mean poorly-coached or undisciplined. I mean there is no one on this team who is capable of leading them on the floor.

Why does that matter? Consider the fact that most people thought last year's team would have this year's record, but last year's team only lost 2 road games all year. While there was arguably more talent, there was definitely more of a steadying presence. Part of that was John Wall being mature beyond his years, but the biggest part of that was Patrick Patterson. This team doesn't have that luxury, although Darius Miller and DeAndre Liggins certainly could/should be, if Liggins can quit crying and pissing his pants everytime he gets called for a foul. The freshmen, talented as they are, just don't have that quality about them. And they shouldn't necessarily have to, they are freshmen. While I would like to see Brandon Knight be that guy, he isn't. Again, it's not a bad thing if someone isn't a natural leader, as long as there is someone on the team who is. This team doesn't have one. And the fact they continue to lose close games on the road proves that, because a well-led team learns from their mistakes and corrects them. I haven't seen these guys do that once this year, which is why they won't make a run in the NCAA unless they get one hell of a draw, which they don't even get in good years. Why would they now?

I say all that to say this: everyone keeps mentioning next year's team, with its all-time recruiting class and deeper bench and more talent, as the team to beat. But, if none of the incoming freshmen have great leadership abilities, Kentucky could very well be in the same boat they are now. Granted, more talent and deeper bench means there is a smaller chance of being in a dogfight on the road, but it will happen at some point. How will that team respond? I have no clue, and won't until I see what happens. But until someone shows some stones, I am keeping my expectations tempered.

January 17, 2011

BRING THE PAIN (1st Edition)

I hadn't planned on letting 2 months pass between posts, but it's hard to find time to write a lot when I don't get paid for it. On the other hand, it's hard to get paid for writing when I don't find a lot of time to do it. Dammit. Either way, I have a good idea. After LeBron James' dumbass tweet last week saying God hates Cleveland (maybe not in those words), followed by him backpedaling fast enough to make an All-Pro cornerback jealous, but preceded by his not having won a meaningful thing yet (and I'm not counting Olympic gold; that was Kevin Durant’s baby), I decided it is high time someone devised a way to judge if a superstar is worth paying any mind too. In other words, is their entertainment value negated by the stupidity they tend to ooze forth? Unfortunately for you, that someone is me. And, after several minutes’ worth of thought and for lack of a better term, I'm proud to give you the PAIN Ratio.

"WTF is PAIN Ratio?" I can hear you asking now. PAIN Ratio is the relationship between Positive Accomplishments and Idiotic Negativity. PAIN. Here's how this works: everything good a celebrity does (for sake of argument, I am sticking to athletes), they get points in the Positive column. This includes, but is not limited to: rings, MVP awards, scoring titles, donated kidneys, All-Star games, and general public perception of the athlete as a passable human being. Now, for every stupid thing an athlete does or says, they get points in the Negative column. This includes, but is not limited to: breaking up with your team on national television, possibly raping someone in Colorado, throwing teammates/coaches under the bus, getting arrested, gut-punching a homeless man, and general public perception of the athlete as a steaming asshole. The point totals for each column make the PAIN ratio, and the higher the number, the higher the chance the athlete may actually say something worthwhile from time to time. If the number falls below 2, the guy no longer matters. This is will be known as being a “PAIN In The Ass.”

Before I get into the points breakdown, let me clarify this: crazy people don’t count. Bill Simmons once wrote about “The Tyson Zone”, when celebrities reach a point where no one would be surprised at anything they did, like tattooing their face. This is a different system; Mike Tyson is crazy. This applies to athletes who make you say, “Geez, that guy is an asshole.” Like LeBron James. If Tyson picks up a VW in an intersection and flips it over, no one would blink an eyeball since the man is nuts. Likewise, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if LeBron bought an orphanage, shut it down, threw the children out on the street, and opened a store that sold nothing but his shoes and jerseys. He is proving himself to be a colossally arrogant prick.

Now, for the scoring system. This is the part I’ve struggled with. Obviously, it’s completely arbitrary at this point, so if anyone feels like giving feedback, I’d love to hear it. If this thing grows legs, I will make the necessary adjustments and update it as we go. I’m also sure that as soon as I post this, I will think of about 7 other things to add. For now, consider this Version 1.0. To start, I decided to score each item on a scale of 1-10, with the most positive/negative things receiving a 10 rating. You’ll notice each item on the Negative list is worth ten times more. I figure this helps compensate for the fact that media and fans obsess over the bad things people do. Here’s what I came up with:

POSITIVE
10 points- Finals MVP
9 points- MVP
8 points- All-Star/All-Pro teams
7 points- Scoring titles/stats leaders/ROY
6 points- Significant role on a championship team
5 points- Olympic participation
4 points- Outperforming hype
3 points- Living up to hype
2 points- Voluntary public service
1 point- Being considered a good ambassador to the sport

NEGATIVE
100 points- Accused of murder/manslaughter/rape
90 points- 2nd offense (or more) of particular crime
80 points- History of complaining/blaming others/quitting on team/2nd league suspension
70 points- League suspension
60 points- Arrest for different offense
50 points- Arrest; multiple kids by multiple women
40 points- Being an idiot on Twitter (henceforth known as being a "Twidiot" if no one has coined that term yet)
30 points- Publicly embarrassing someone/calling them out
20 points- Not living up to hype
10 points- Getting caught in a lie/bad PR


Somes notes about my train of thought here: for starters, you’ll notice I put a lot of emphasis on individual accolades. This is because we as a society, for the most part, would rather see our superstars at the center of the stage; that is why they are superstars. This also means that ultimate team guys, like ring-wearer extraordinaire Robert Horry, don’t usually generate enough press, good or bad, to dominate conversion. As for the negative side of things, it should be fairly self-explanatory. You’ll notice I put “accused of” regarding murder, manslaughter and rape, rather than “convicted of”. I’m not trying to be harsh, but these guys should know better than to put themselves in compromising positions in the first place. If you are in shape to get accused of murder, you made a damn bad decision somewhere that night. Also, no decimals, because that would be an endless discussion.

After this, I realized I needed a way to recognize patterns, such as repeat awards/offenses. So, if a guy wins multiple MVP awards, he gets recognition for the duration of his accomplishment. Likewise, if a guy has regular diarrhea of the mouth on his Twitter feed, he gets points there as well. It works like this: if something happens more than once, but not consecutively, then the point value is two times what the previous value was. In other words, if a dude gets the MVP, then another three years later, the second is worth 18 points, since the first MVP was worth 9. If he got a third MVP two years later, that one would count for 36 points. Got it? Now, if a guy wins multiple MVP awards in a row, each successive one is worth the point total of the first one squared. Therefore, the second MVP would be worth 81 points (9x9), and a third consecutive award would be worth 81 as well. And, for the hell of it, if a guy wins two consecutive MVPs, then a third one 2 years later, the third one counts for 81 points. On the other hand, if a guy gets accused of rape on two separate occasions, the second offense is worth 100 points, and each offense after that is 1000 more. This should offset the fact I’ve used the maximum point total for mere allegations.

Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s get to the nitty-gritty and see the PAIN Ratio in action. For the sake of time, I’m going with 3 people on the initial run: LeBron, Kobe, and Ben Roethlisberger. Here’s a look at the stats for each guy:

Bryant:
Rings (’00-’02, ’09-’10)= 150 points
Finals MVP(’09-’10)= 110 points
MVP(’08)= 9 points
Scoring titles (’06-’07)= 56 points
All-Star/All-NBA (12 times each)= 1328 points
Olympics (’08)= 5 points
Living up to and outperforming hype= 7 points
Being a good ambassador= 1 point
Arrest and rape accusation= 150 points
Tendency to pout in games= 160 points
Calling out Shaq for cheating= 30 points
Bad PR over rape arrest= 10 points

That’s 1666 good points to 350 bad points, for a PAIN Ratio of 4.8

James:
MVP (’09-’10)= 90 points
Rookie of the Year (’04)= 7 points
Scoring titles (’08)= 7 points
Olympics (’04, ’08)= 15 points
All-Star/All-NBA (6 times each)= 656 points
Public service= 2 points
Quitting on team in ’10 playoffs= 80 points
Being a Twidiot= 120 points
Not living up to hype (no rings yet)= 20 points
Bad PR= 110 points
“The Decision”= 30 points

That’s 777 good points to 360 bad points, for a PAIN Ratio of 2.2

Roethlisberger:
Rookie of the Year(’04)= 7 points
2 Rings (’05, ’08)= 18 points
Pro Bowl (’07)= 8 points
Living up to and outperforming hype= 7 points
Voluntary public service= 6 points
2 rape accusations= 200 points
Suspension= 70 points
Bad PR= 100 points

That’s 46 good points to 370 bad points. Damn. PAIN Ratio of .1 for Ben.

Obviously, Ben’s numbers are skewed on account of the rape accusations, so if he keeps it in his pants, he can get his number back up eventually. What hurts him is that, even though he is a proven winner, he doesn’t have eye-popping numbers to offset the dumb shit he tends to do. I may have to find a metric to get him back up to a respectable level, something like his career win percentage compared to the overall history of the franchise. In the meantime, we are all hoping he makes a strong recovery. As for Kobe, I think he proves my system to be at least somewhat fair. He has accolades out the ass, and just enough negative marks against him to make it interesting. A 4.8 seems perfectly reasonable to me. LeBron, on the other hand, needs to keep his damn mouth shut until he wins something. The All-Star games are the only thing carrying him right now, as a 2.2 rating makes him very close to being a PAIN In The Ass. A sizable chunk of the population already thinks he is anyway.

In a large nutshell, maybe a walnut shell or something, that is the PAIN Ratio. I’m hoping to get some feedback, on Twitter or in the comment section, if anyone so desires. When I came up with this, I created the scoring system without looking at anyone's stats; the fact that I had LeBron in mind with the cut-off point he nearly reached thrills me to no end. Now I’m curious what the 32 of you who are going to read this think.

November 12, 2010

DO I KNOW YOU? YOU DON’T LOOK FAMILIAR

Before we delve into this hot mess, let me just say that the last time I did a UK Basketball preview, the team didn’t even make the NCAA tournament. (But I did make the final four of the KSR “Who Wants To Be A Blogger” competition, even though I didn’t win. It makes no difference now, looks like Matt Jones has got himself a nice little following over there. I’m sure he barely misses me, if at all.)

Now, you may have noticed there is a slight difference between that team and this year’s. For starters, the coach is sober. And the exact opposite of what Billy “Don’t Call Me Surly, I’m Just An Asshole” Gillispie was. The only problem with John Calipari is that he recruits players the NBA actually wants, so it looks like we are gonna have a rather large amount of personnel turnover every season. Nothing wrong with signing blue chippers all day long, but by doing that you sacrifice the family aspect of having tenured players. This will eventually be an issue, if for no other reason than a sizable group of nostalgic old-timers will get together and bitch about how, back in the day, players stayed more than one or two years. Makes no difference to me, but I do like seeing at least one or two upperclassmen to show the young guys how it’s done.

In my opinion, that is the biggest downfall for this edition of Wildcat basketball. Sure, there is less size, less depth, probably less talent, but more than anything, less of a veteran presence. Nothing against the older guys, but Patrick Patterson carried this team for two seasons (with help from Joe Crawford and Ramel Bradley for one of them), under very difficult circumstances. Last year’s freshmen knew they had to bring it, or the old man was gonna crack some skulls. This year? I’m not sure Darius Miller and DeAndre Liggins can bring out that sense of “have to” that Patterson did. Nothing against them, that’s just how I see it.

On the flip side, when it comes to postseason play, apparently the veteran presence isn’t necessary for a big run in the NCAA tournament. After all, as good as Patterson was, he had played in just as many tournament games as John Wall and Co. (And the NIT doesn’t count. Stick the NIT in your ass if you think it does.) Even with a severe lack of postseason experience on last year’s team, they made a nice Elite Eight run, before picking the worst time of the season to forget how to play basketball. Here’s the caveat: a grizzled veteran calms that team down and makes them play within themselves, instead of jacking up 3’s all night. Patterson wasn’t able to do that, because he hadn’t been there before.

Which gets me back to this year: even though Miller and Liggins don’t appear (to me) to be able to bring out the best in their teammates, they will have a few tournament games under their belts come NCAA time. In other words, I don’t see them being as dominant in the regular season, but I think they have a better chance for a Final Four. Ah, the hell with it. I don’t know what is going to happen, and neither do you. And yes, I’m aware that I contradicted myself numerous times in the preceding paragraphs. Get over it.

Something else I wonder about with Calipari: since he recruits studs, is there a chance that, in the near future, Kentucky won’t have anyone to honor on Senior Night? There is only one sophomore this year, Jon Hood, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he transferred. He just seems like a moody bastard to me.

But back to my original point, if I even got there to begin with: nobody knows anyone who plays for Kentucky this year. That’s where I come in. Instead of some gutless prediction of scores and final standings, I’m gonna give you an inkling of who the hell these guys are. Because I’m nothing if not here to provide a service, let’s get to it.

*NOTE: MAY OR MAY NOT ACTUALLY CONTAIN PERTINENT INFORMATION

THE FRESHMEN

Enes Kanter, #0, 6’11” C. By far the biggest question mark this year, Kanter takes this team from solid contender to one of several legitimate favorites. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. A lot of people expect him to miss a few games before gaining eligibility, a la Randolph Morris. The problem with that is Morris had a year of NCAA experience before he missed time, so it was just a matter of getting back in game shape. For all of Kanter’s upside and Turkish pro experience, the American game is a different animal. I can’t confidently say he can just come in and clean house. I’m sure he will; just don’t be surprised if he doesn’t. Trivia: The anagram for “Enes Kanter” is “enter snake”, which is several different kinds of awesome. I really hope he gets to play.
UPDATE: Well, shit. Since I finished this entry, Enes Kanter was denied eligibility by the NCAA, who are a bunch of flaming bastard assholes. Unless UK wins its appeal, nothing I just wrote about him is relevant. Not that it was anyway.

Stacey Poole, #2, 6’4” G. Poole was the first one of the 2010 class to commit, and has been overlooked ever since. Kind of understandable, I guess, since he only has four stars. The guy obviously sucks. If Calipari truly goes with a 7-man rotation, I don’t see Poole getting guaranteed minutes.

Terrence Jones, #3, 6’8’ F/C. I’m looking forward to seeing how this guy does this season. He is one of the many players on this year’s team who was pilfered from U-Dub. A lot of hell was raised over Jones’ initial commitment to Washington, but he waffled and decided to join the winning team. I’m sure Cam Newton is responsible. Jones is a lefty, and tall and quick, just like me (one out of three ain’t bad), and he has potential to be an exciting player, if he could just quit with those damn water bottles.

Jarrod Polson, #5, 6’1” G. Polson is a walk-on cum scholarship from Jessamine County, so he already has a place as a fan favorite. The fact he is a scrawny little white guy helps; just ask Colin Cowherd. Not sure what Polson’s dad does, but I’m sure he doesn’t make plans to rob banks. Colin Cowherd is also an asshole.

Brandon Knight, #12, 6’3” G. Brandon Knight is the stud of this year’s recruiting class. He graduated high school with a 4.2 GPA, can recite Shakespeare, and isn’t quite as quick as John Wall, which means he is still quicker than everyone else. He has played great in every game so far, from the Canadian trip to both exhibitions, and the team will ebb and flow with him.

Doron Lamb, #20, 6’4” G. Lamb is the sharpshooter for this year’s team, and he will be oft-needed. He has drawn a few comparisons to Jodie Meeks for his style and shooting ability, and is considered a mentor for 2015 stud Jarius Docile, who is rumored to be a UK lean. Lamb’s anagram is “Bold Roman”, which would be more fitting for Brandon Knight, what with the Shakespeare recitation and whatnot.

SOPHOMORE

Jon Hood, #4, 6’7” G. I’m not sure how much of a contributor Hood will be this year. If he can show consistent touch shooting the ball early on, he has a good shot of getting serious minutes. If he struggles out of the gate, he may be fighting for minutes with Stacey Poole.

JUNIORS

Darius Miller, #1, 6’7” F/G. Darius Miller is officially the veteran leader of this team, and I’m not sure that’s a good sign. He doesn’t show much vocal leadership, but I’ll be the first to admit good leaders don’t have to be vocal. What worries me about Miller is his inconsistent intensity; can he make his teammates want to be better? As far as his ability, Darius can be a 20-point scorer if he wants to be.

Eloy Vargas, #30, 6’11” F/C. Vargas is another player who has been overlooked all year, but I don’t see that being the case for long. A transfer from Florida, he is the team’s main inside presence after Enes Kanter. Eloy is sort of a question mark; he certainly has the size to be a factor, but whether or not he is will have a lot to do with Kentucky’s success this season.

DeAndre Liggins, #34, 6’6” G. After a very up-and-down first couple seasons, I look for Liggins to be the vocal leader of this team. He has found a nice little niche as an energy/dirty work guy, and with a team full of freshmen, that is a nice option to have. Liggins appears to be a little quicker than last year, and he will almost certainly get more minutes. He could end up being this year’s X-factor.

SENIOR

Josh Harrellson, #55, 6’10” F/C. Harrellson is a guy who normally wouldn’t see much action, but with a thin front line, Calipari may call his number quite often, especially given his veteran status. Not the most athletic of the big tall slow white guys you’ll see, but he may be a big help in the rebounding department this year. It will be interesting to see how Josh is utilized with a short bench.

So there it is. Eleven guys (10 if Kanter doesn’t play) who will carry the torch this season. I look for Knight, Miller, Jones, Liggins, and Kanter to start, with Vargas/Harrellson, Lamb, and Poole/Hood being the key reserves. And yes, that is pretty much the entire team, save Polson, who may get good minutes if the starters see early foul trouble. As for the schedule, it’s a bit tricky, with several BCS teams in the non-conference portion. An early trip to Maui will be a great test for a young team; they also have to go to Chapel Hill. I see 5-6 losses regular season, another SEC title, a 1-2 seed in the NCAA, and another Elite Eight. If Enes plays, they are a favorite to win it all.

This has been another installment of “Vaguely Worded Analysis That Offers No Insight Whatsoever”. I hope you enjoyed it, and remember: Don’t sweat the petty things, and don’t pet the sweaty things.

November 08, 2010

Fantasy Football Sucks

First off, let me say that the reason I haven't posted to this thing in over seven months is because a) time has been as scarce as expendable income and b) my fiancée is needier than the kids are, so even when they were being cool, she would find something to whine about that involved me not sitting in front of the computer and thinking of mildly clever things to say. Also, whoever viewed this blog from Alaska, thank you. Tell Sarah Palin the Russians are getting tired of her staring at them all the time. And not in a "Lisa-Ann-hot-MILF-next-door-porn" type of staring, but rather a "would’ve-been-VP-if-she-had-kept-her-mouth-shut" kind of way.

I hate fantasy football. I'm sure I'm not the first frustrated owner to say that, especially in a season that has been as unpredictable as this one, but I really hate it. Even on the rare week that I win, I still hate it, because it ends up being more of a "shew, thank God I survived" feeling, as opposed to the "I just kicked his ass, bring me a leg of meat and a flagon of mead!" feeling that it should be. Because, at its essence, that is what fantasy football is: a nerdier way to show your friends that you are better than them at something. And when our friends remind us repeatedly that we are not, in fact, better than them, it tends to piss us off; we have to face the fact that we are failures, our kids are stupid, our jobs suck, and our wives have been screwing the milkman for the last several months, ever since the “incident”. (We told her a hundred times already, we didn’t realize we were that drunk.)

Ok, so maybe it isn’t quite that serious. But guys are, by nature, a competitive bunch, and when we lose on a regular basis, it tends to make us not want to be involved in whatever we are losing at anymore. (This explains the high divorce rate. Has a man ever actually won an argument?) Which brings me to my point: I hate fantasy football. I have been playing for six years, and have joined at least two leagues each year, if not three. Actually, that’s a lie. The first year I played, I was only in one league, a generic ESPN online affair. Guess how many times I’ve won it all? The first year I played, in a generic ESPN online affair. And I was pissing that season away until Daunte Culpepper got hurt. (Thank you, Kerry Collins!) So basically, my fantasy experience is a lot like sex before marriage. I got the good stuff right off the bat, but I haven’t tasted it since I’ve been committed. But, like sex after marriage, I press on diligently in the hopes that I will get to savor the sweet fruit once more.

I will admit, though, that my favorite part of fantasy is the draft; then again, I’m the same guy who makes a chart and takes notes during the offseason portion of Madden. (Gotta make sure I get the best ILB available in the draft, but I can’t reach! Don’t have much cap room.) In both my fantasy drafts this year, I had my laptop out, making a spreadsheet of each owner’s picks. For the first draft, I was in a hotel room two hours from home, with a Blackberry earpiece, laptop, six-pack of Shiner, and three different sets of rankings. My buddy had me on speakerphone on the other end, so I could hear each pick. Oh yeah, I was drafting for both myself and my fiancée. And you know what? I loved it. It was a bit of a rush, actually. For the second draft, the league where I am the commissioner, I made a poster board of draft order, with minimum and maximum roster requirements. I brought each owner a manila folder with two sets of rankings and a pen. I’m a huge nerd like that. I love organization, and the little thrill of being able to get a draft/league going. After that, things aren’t as much fun.

In my Fox league (the one with the fiancée), there are only eight teams, so everyone makes the playoffs. To be honest, I’m barely keeping up with it, aside from making sure my lineup is okay each week. Bless her heart, she obsesses over it like a stock market analyst. I’m so proud. But my ESPN league is wearing me out. I drafted Matt Forte and Darren McFadden, even though I didn’t want either of them. Of course, I sat Forte the first week, since he barely scored more points last season than I did. Guess who scored 44 points on my bench? Guess who lost by twelve? (By the way, our scoring system is badly skewed.) So, the next week, I played Forte, but sat Jahvid Best. Guess who scored 54 on the bench, in a game I lost by eleven? Long story short, every substitution I have made this year has been the wrong one, and it’s starting to get to me. Thankfully, my piss-poor substitution tendencies haven’t mattered the last couple weeks, since my entire team has decided to suck en masse.

The good news in all this is, even with a 2-6 record, I’m only one game out of a playoff spot (Fantasy football: Now with the added realism of feeling like an NFC West team!) and I own the tiebreaker against the dude ahead of me. Even better, I still have three division games left. Unless Aaron Rodgers completely disintegrates during the bye week (which is a possibility, have you seen Green Bay’s offensive line? Neither have they. People are starting to wonder if they weren’t in an accident or something), I feel pretty good about my chances. After all, my losses have been close, and all but one of them were due to me benching the wrong guy. Even better, one of the games is against a jackwagon who drafted four Dallas players as starters, including Romo. (Speaking of Dallas, was anyone else sad to see Romo get hurt? Not that I care if he is healthy or not, but it was much more fun watching the Cowboys implode with him making bad decisions, as opposed to watching them implode by not even remotely pretending to care anymore.) Looking at my schedule, I’ve got 2 guys I’ve already beat, and another with a losing record. Even if I don’t sneak into the playoffs, I’m really starting to think I’ve got a good chance.

Hmmm. Stubborn optimism in the face of repeated failure. I guess that is what fantasy football is all about.