I'm not worried about the Ohio State game. Yes, I just said that. It's only Wednesday, and already I've heard oodles and boodles of analysis regarding who will win this game and why, with reasons ranging from the players to the fans. I've even heard how Thad Matta is one of the classiest coaches in the game, but how classy is a guy who, in 2007, made a gimpy 42 year-old man carry them to the title game? Greg Oden still hasn't recovered. Here's something I haven't heard yet, and it's my reason why Kentucky will de-nut the Buckeyes: John Calipari.
You read that right. I think John "Roll The Ball Out" Calipari is the reason UK moves on to play Marquette (probably not, but the Big (L)East has to have something go their way, right?) and here's why: the man knows how to prepare his teams. I winced a little bit typing that, due to UK having lost six conference road games this season, but at that point he was still tinkering with the team's identity. Since the Arkansas loss, these guys are on a tear, and are as hot as any team still playing. Calipari is a great coach, but more than that/owing to that he is a brilliant salesman. He could talk the chicken off the bone. He could sell ice cubes to an Eskimo. He could motivate a team of 19 and 20 year olds to knock off the number one overall seed in the tournament. He is a master motivator, and he will have his team ready to play Friday night, especially because Kentucky is the underdog for once. Don't be surprised to see these guys come out angry.
However, that is not my main reason for this devout faith in John Calipari. This is: in 12 NCAA Tournament appearances prior to this season, a John Calipari-coached team has lost their first game of the weekend only four times. Of those four losses, two came against UK, one of these being the Final Four rematch in 1996, at the hands of a Kentucky team that God Himself would've needed overtime to beat. Of the remaining two, one of those was in 2009, when UK just so happened to have a coaching vacancy, a vacancy that would be filled by Calipari a mere 5 days after his team lost. That tells me his mind was on the UK job, whether it actually was or not. I'm not here to let facts get in the way. This leaves one loss, and it came in 2003 when 10-seed Arizona St. beat 7-seed Memphis in the first round. Want a caveat? That was Calipari's first NCAA team at Memphis, in his third season at the school. In fact, Cal's teams lost in this fashion twice. The other occasion was his first NCAA team at UMass.
What does that say? That says if a Calipari team has several days to prepare for a tournament opponent, they likely aren't going to lose. Now, add this little nugget into the mix: In 38 Sweet 16 appearances, UK is 28-10 overall. Coach Cal is 8-2 lifetime in the Sweet 16 himself. Add these together and you have a cumulative 35-12 record (I only counted last year's game once) in the Sweet 16.
Look for UK to come ready on Friday. They will hold OSU to under 40% 3-point shooting. I think Josh Harrellson and Eloy Vargas(!) can and will do a respectable job on Sullinger. Terrence Jones may have some defensive input there as well. On offense, I don't think the Cats will be as perimeter-oriented as everyone says, at least not early. I think they try to get Darius established early, and maybe get Doron a couple open looks as well. Brandon Knight may not have the game he had against West Virginia, but he will be a difference maker.
Cats by 5.
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